What Value can be Found in 2026?

Another year has gone by, another year in front of us. I’ve been involved in trucking since 1989/90 and specifically Accounting/Tax for Operators since 1995.

This is my THIRD recession in the trucking industry. The worst of course was 2000/2001, where failure of Carriers to offer fuel subsidies to Operators had trucks parked in rented farmers’ fields across Canada. Some blamed deregulation, but that is not the whole story. A barrel of oil went from $12 Jan 1999 to $33 Nov 2000 and has never dipped below $20 since then (except one month in 2020). Seasoned Carriers didn’t offer fuel subsidies because most of the industry didn’t accept it as standard at the time. It took over 10 years to accept fuel surcharges.

2009 saw RECORD low freight costs, but that hardly lasted a full year. Carriers slashed checks from Operators like it was standard operating procedure. Operators COULDN’T leave because NOBODY was hiring. It was the first time Over the Road Magazine considered not publishing a month… but… of course, they did anyway.

Finally, we have the 2022 recession, which, of course, we are still in. What immediately preceded this recession was one of the BIGGEST BOOMS in freight rate history. Carriers “named their rate” and those who needed it moved had to pay it. New trucking companies exploded into the market like a massive volcano (and did as much damage). In my world, I saw nearly 4% of all our clients get their own Running Rights. Then, within months, the record rates disappeared. Equipment went from 2-3 times normal price back to normal or even BELOW normal within 6-8 months. Those caught up in the hype and those overleveraged nearly all disappeared (bankruptcies or otherwise). My 4% who got their running rights? Well, over half went back to other carrier’s authorities, and the rest disappeared. Every year since 2023, prognosticators took a swing at forecasting the coming “recovery” (me included). Though most everyone believes the bottom was reached… any recovery can only be described as moments to catch one’s breath before the pressure is on again. Very few Carriers can afford asset replacement. Trucks are being extended beyond their normal cycle of carrier use. One fleet maintenance manager said it’s like being Wile E. Coyote running… nothing above him, nothing below him.

2026 will be another year of seeking “clarity” and “value” wherever it can be shown. Each transaction must be filtered for value. Can we extend service of assets longer? Can we show the true VALUE of a new asset purchase? The entire industry is getting into the long-term habit of frugality and conservative positions. An overly optimistic perspective can become a future fatal blow. Carriers ARE hiring but usually because they have a list of low performers they would like to get rid of. As soon as a GEM is signed on, they will AXE the dead weight. Sometimes an operator becomes a dead weight when they “require” a minimum volume of miles/work. Operators who are too demanding can and sometimes will become a liability worth eliminating. It’s not that they are fired, they are just given what the Carrier CAN provide, which is 80-85% of NEEDED volume so that within a few months the starved Operator leaves. It’s not pretty but it’s a natural occurrence in the free market. Those who paid down debt during the good times, can coast during the lean ones. Those who work and sacrifice when asked to can relax when the market turns soft. It’s a principle that everyone needs to learn, even if you’re not in the trucking industry. If I can say so humbly, I am where I am because I don’t play golf, never bought a new vehicle, never spent money on sports or high-priced hobbies. Even though my life insurance was lapsed 2+ years ago (due to age/cost/value), my family will be fine because I lived within my means and planned/saved for retirement. I am very thankful to my wife, who also lives within our means. We are both subject to sound planning principles which are way more valuable than luck.

If I had one wish to all operators in 2026, it would be to clearly understand your risks and your potential returns of your business and cash flow. The most misunderstood part of being an Operator is knowing how to properly save on taxes… ethically of course. As of this year, I’ve been writing on and off about Non-Taxable Benefits for 18 years here at Over the Road Magazine. I still explain it whenever I can, it saves operators $12,000+ per year in taxes and YET less than 1% of Operators use it. If your Accountant at year- end asks you how many days you travelled in the US and/or Canada (or counts your logs for you) …. you are using the TL2 simplified method. You are NOT using the tax saving system you should be (NTB). Check out the PODCASTS on our YouTube channel “Making Your Miles Count” to find out what I’m talking about, or call us, or even have your Accountant call us. Every month that goes by you will be sending $1000 more to Ottawa than you must. This year, get the value you need to build after-tax wealth for you and your family.

About the Author:

Robert D. Scheper is a leading Accountant and Consultant exclusively serving the Lease/Owner operator industry in Canada. His first book in the Making Your Miles Count series “taxes, taxes, taxes” was released in 2007. His second book “Choosing a Trucking company” is the most in-depth analysis of the independent operator industry today. He has a Master’s degree (MBA) in financial management and has been serving the industry since he and his wife came off the road in 1993. His dedication, commitment and strong opinions can be read and heard in many articles and seminars.

You can find him at www.makingyourmilescount.com or 1-877-987-9787.