What is a Truck Worth in 2026?

Selling? Buying? Leasing a truck? Determining the value of a truck is the number one issue in trucking right now. In 2022, truck valuations were through the roof, astronomical, a historical anomaly that may not ever happen again. Truck values today are entirely different simply because the circumstances are dramatically different. 

Trucks are not valued like real estate, which is generally understood to be land plus building costs plus incidentals (location, earnings, etc). The primary valuation tool of trucks for transport is… WHATEVER the buyer is willing to pay. That sounds grossly oversimplistic, but it’s not that far from the truth. If someone is willing to purchase/lease a truck and a finance company is willing to link the truck to the buyer’s present and future wealth, then the ceiling of liability (PRICE) is restricted only by the buyer/leaser’s choice NOT to sign. Let me explain in an extreme example. For someone with millions of spare cash who wants a truck more than they want their money/credit, the terms can be set for them to pay… LITERALLY millions. Valuations are not set at how much it costs the manufacturer to build… not at all… it’s what the market can bear (the maximum those in the industry are collectively willing and able to pay). It only SEEMS like there is a sticker price ceiling because a salesman is told the estimated amount the market will pay, which can fluctuate 5-15+% depending on terms, features etc. If someone wants the truck badly and has the finances and credit to purchase/lease, then the terms very quickly become unlimited till the buyer says it’s too high. There was no greater example of this than in 2022. The momentary spike in freight prices (2021 and early 2022) produced an excess of expectations and demand. Finance companies participated in valuations that were grossly over market simply because people were willing to sign their financial future away for it. Many people lost everything they owned and destroyed their earnings for 5-10 years. Asset purchase valuation is critical to all financial success. It must be, at the very least, reasonable… preferably a great price.

I had the privilege to attend a meeting of two of my clients, where they met to consider if one was willing to buy the other’s truck. The buyer had a 26+ year old truck that had about 4-5 years left on an engine rebuild. He was considering the purchase of a seven-year-old truck that had maybe 2-3 years before a rebuild was necessary. The buyer thought he may have 4-6 years left before he would retire. 

The difference in maintenance was dramatic. The newer truck had an automatic transmission, and the older had a manual one. Rebuilding the transmission for the new would be about $15-22k, and the old about $4-7k. This example could be sprinkled all through the potential repair needs over the next half-decade. What further complicated matters were the pollution control issues with the 7-year-old truck. It would take $22k to get “up to spec” or $7k to delete the whole thing (an issue not debated in this article). In many ways, NEW trucks depreciate MUCH FASTER than older ones do (or have). In the end, the value the buyer put on the newer truck was $4500 plus scrap price because… the newer truck had brand new tires that he could use on his old truck. The truck produced zero value for him… it was scrap. It was… however… a very pretty truck compared to the relic of the previous century.

There are several carriers who are moving from company trucks to Independent Operators because they simply don’t have the expertise to manage trucks with 600-800k+ miles on them. If you put that risk side by side with the fact that the price they must pay for new equipment is beyond their means (in this 3+ year industry depression) they have little choice in doing so. A prolonged recession, such as we have now, produces opportunities and risks for everyone.

On average, it is well known that Independent Operators can usually manage older trucks better than a fleet can… provided they understand good maintenance. However, those who are ignorant of maintenance and purchase valuation can lose their shirts on one bad weekend. Those who depend on warranty to save them have a 50/50 chance it will do so (in my 30+ years of experience). There was a time not many years ago that brand new trucks produced a 70% increase in downtime; numbers that will crush any operator or carrier.

The question on everyone’s mind is… is it the right time to get into a truck or not? In the end, business valuation of a truck is based on fuel costs and maintenance costs over purchase price. If you are a low-risk individual and understand good maintenance, you may be sitting at a sweet spot in history. If you can’t see value or risks but burn to own your own truck anyway… you and your bank account will probably end up doing a Thelma and Louise.

About the Author:

Robert D. Scheper is a leading Accountant and Consultant exclusively serving the Lease/Owner operator industry in Canada. His first book in the Making Your Miles Count series “taxes, taxes, taxes” was released in 2007. His second book “Choosing a Trucking company” is the most in-depth analysis of the independent operator industry today. He has a Master’s degree (MBA) in financial management and has been serving the industry since he and his wife came off the road in 1993. His dedication, commitment and strong opinions can be read and heard in many articles and seminars.

You can find him at www.makingyourmilescount.com or 1-877-987-9787.